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Episode 802: The Podcast We Put Away Wet
Date January 21, 2016 Summary Ben and Sam banter about Chris Davis and Target, then answer emails about David Price, Yosemite Tim, requesting trades, true talent, and the most average player. Topics * Player true talent and projections * David Price's ALDS usage * Undiscovered baseball players * The most average player * Players requesting trades Intro The Rolling Stones, "Ride on Baby" Outro The Marshall Tucker Band, "Long Hard Ride" Banter * Episode 801 follow-up: Chris Davis' use of Adderall. * Episode 797 follow-up: A listener who works for Target says that on a given day 1750,000-200,000 items are in the store on a given day. Email Questions * Daniel (Boston, MA): "The statistical models utilized by BP to project players assume that there is an ideal version of a player. For example the first best or 99th percentile outcome for next season for Player X is that they slash .272/.367/.538. In the macro sense these models appear to assume that there is a latent best version of a player which that player may or may not achieve due to injuries or other countervailing factors. I can understand the utility of these projection systems as a team can more easily construct a roster by accounting for the range of a player's 25%-75% outcomes, etc. What I want to know is if you guys believe that the model assumptions are true in reality? Is there a latent best case skill level that all players innately hold but that they may not achieve due to the specific contexts of their lives? In this sense I'm asking if you guys believe that there is an absolute truth to this skill level of players." * Mark: "When Andy McCullough was on the show this week he very briefly brought up the way the Blue Jays used David Price in the ALDS. Both he and Sam expressed some lingering disbelief that John Gibbons would have used him that way. Does the benefit of knowing Price has signed with another team do anything to change your interpretation of his usage? It's hard not to imagine that they all knew they weren't going to be able to make a competitive offer to retain him. The Blue Jays podcast Birds All Day has a fondness for saying Gibbons would ride him hard and put him away wet. Is that pretty much what's going on here? Can I request that Ben read this email because I think it would be funnier to hear him say the phrase, 'ride him hard and put him away wet'." * Tim: "I was born and raised in Yosemite National Park. I truly believe I am one of the most talented baseball players alive but undiscovered due to my isolated location. What can I do to get the attention of a major league club?" * Marcus: "Perhaps this has been answered before, who is the first inductee to the baseball hall of average who lies squarely in the middle of production of all guys who have 10 years of service time, 5 years retired?" * Scott: "I saw the other day where Jonathan Lucroy told the press that he thought it was time for a trade, which got me to wondering what's the advantage to a player to do such a thing? He's asking his employer for a favor and making it as onerous and costly as possible for said employer and the timing is terrible too giving that he's coming off a season in which he stank. Like, markedly worse than A.J. Pierzynski." Play Index * Ben answers Marcus' question using the Play Index. There are four players that have 0.0 wins above average with at least 3,000 plate appearances. Ben thinks that Gus Triandos is the most average of these players. Notes * Rather than riding David Price hard in the ALDS Ben says that the Blue Jays, 'rode him strangely.' * Sam thinks that an unknown player with AAA talent could go from signed by an independent team to signing with a MLB club in 18 months or fewer. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 802: The Podcast We Put Away Wet Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes